Fox Sports analyst Chris Fallica carries a 12-6 record into Week 4. His slate includes five picks alongside historical trends for ranked matchups.
Fox Sports analyst Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica released his Week 4 college football betting picks, carrying a 12-6 season record after going 2-2 the previous week.
Five game picks for the weekend
Fallica’s card begins with Central Michigan staying under 0.5 first-half points against Miami. He pointed to the Chippewas’ run-heavy approach and slow pace, estimating they will get only about four first-half possessions against the Hurricanes. He also expects Miami to lean on the run because of offensive injuries.
At Michigan Stadium, Fallica took Iowa’s team total under 17.5 points. He noted the Hawkeyes failed to crack 300 yards or 5.0 yards per play against Iowa State. Seven straight and 12 of the last 15 regular-season games Iowa has played against ranked opponents have gone under the total.
Fallica also took USC +0.5 in the first quarter against Oregon. He pointed out that USC chooses to receive when winning the coin toss while Oregon defers, giving the Trojans the opening drive against an Oregon defense that hasn’t played well. In the Southeastern Conference, Fallica backed LSU at -8.5 against Texas A&M. He wrote that the Aggies lost most of their line personnel on both sides of the ball, leaving quarterback Marcel Reed struggling to throw downfield. LSU lost at Oxford last week and lost players to injury, but Fallica expects the team to avoid an 0-2 conference start with an effort like the one it showed against Clemson. He rounded out his picks with Indiana -20.5 after head coach Curt Cignetti defended Josh Hoover during the week.
Historical trends and matchup notes
Fallica also compiled several national trends entering the weekend. Over the last 35 years, only four top-five teams have played as underdogs against opponents outside the top 20, and all four lost outright. The last was Oregon at Utah in 2021, following Utah at USC in 2015, Wisconsin at Illinois in 2007, and Ohio State at Michigan in 1993.
This week also marks only the fourth time since 2013 that the nation’s No. 1 team is favored by fewer than seven points in a regular-season game. The top-ranked team lost outright in each of the three previous games, including Texas as a 4.5-point favorite against Georgia in 2024.
Among individual coaches, USC’s Lincoln Riley is 5-15 in his last 20 games against ranked teams and 4-12 as an underdog in those matchups, including 2-8 at USC. Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule is 4-10 on the road, while Missouri has dropped seven straight games against ranked opponents. Clemson has gone 6-8 in its last 14 games against Power 4 opponents, and Florida State has posted an 8-19 record since the start of 2024.
