Scientists warn that the intense El Niño event may lead to hundreds of thousands of excess heat-related deaths worldwide, with the Global South most affected.
Projected Impact of the Super El Niño
Scientists from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab forecast that the Super El Niño could cause up to 451,000 excess heat-related deaths by February 2027. Of these, 239,000 deaths are expected within the next six months. The event is causing 44% more extremely hot days than a normal year and has already raised sea surface temperatures to 3.07°C above average, matching the 2015–16 record. It could become the hottest El Niño event in 1,000 years.
Regional Effects and Mortality Estimates
The majority of the projected deaths will occur in the Global South. Nigeria faces the highest toll with an estimated 31,000 additional heat-related deaths from September through February. Indonesia and Sudan follow with 19,300 and 17,600 deaths respectively. The Sahel region of Africa, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Sudan, is expected to see 66,800 heat-induced deaths over the next six months. Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia are projected to have a combined 19,400 excess deaths.
Consequences and Urgent Calls for Action
The study’s mortality forecasts are based on temperature predictions and historical data from over 24,000 global regions, comparing to a baseline normal from 1996 to 2025. Researchers warn that these extreme temperatures may become the norm in coming decades without adaptation. They emphasize the need for urgent preparations, including early warning systems, accurate temperature forecasting, and wider access to cooling technologies, especially in vulnerable areas. However, they note that current solutions may not be applicable everywhere and call for more detailed, region-specific strategies to save lives.
Current Effects Linked to El Niño
El Niño is already associated with several disasters, including wildfires in Indonesia, the lack of monsoon rains in India, and severe droughts in Central America. These droughts have led to crop and animal deaths and reduced water flow in the Panama Canal, causing trade slowdowns.
